mlb betting lines explanation of revelation

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Mlb betting lines explanation of revelation sbo222 betting online

Mlb betting lines explanation of revelation

This essentially involved making them less springy and, thus, less hitter-friendly. And the commissioner may have just been a fall guy -- he was actually a diplomat ambassador to the US from and only fairly recently had been named to the post. It makes sense that these were decisions he may not have been involved in and his resignation over them may have been the product of very different cultural expectations rather than a sign of how significant the "scandal" was.

By comparison, Manfred is a baseball lifer years now and MLB probably doesn't have the same kind of silent, behind-the-curtain committee controlling things behind him. I'm not sure if this example tells us much about the likelihood of a conspiracy in US baseball, to juice the ball and now de-juice it? I'm not buying this altered baseballs thing.

Its such a small sample size compared to the season. There have been like one regular season day worth of playoff games. Complain all you want about a 99 MPH Sano hit at 27 degrees that went feet. There are more than 2 factors in distance a baseball travels. Sano hitting one 70 feet further with the same velocity and angle shouldn't be surprising. August in Texas vs October in New York hmmm. According to baseball reference MLB hit homeruns in games, 1. There have been 52 homeruns in 20 games so far in the playoffs.

Considering the homerun total is 2 teams combined we will call it 26 homeruns in 20 games for a per team average or 52 homeruns in 40 games , that is 1. Community Forum Software by IP. Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Javascript Disabled Detected You currently have javascript disabled. Subscribe to Twins Daily Email. MLB is going to lighten the ball by an o I might quibble a little with that, but loo Opt outs after each year. Keon Broxton Backup Outfielder? He does offer some things that the Twins could use in a backup out We start today by discussing sever Did you notice that the Nationals and Dodgers game featured more than a few opportunities to rob a home run in game 5?

This is interesting. Platoon likes this. Ted Schwerzler likes this. Thank you. Bob Costas didn't observe it this way Twins hit a HR - Bob says, "homers are flying out of the park this year Yankees hit a HR - Bob says, "the Yankees answer in dramatic fashion!

If you click the embedded tweet, there's more to this interesting exchange. Hosken Bombo Disco likes this. Blake likes this. This is the same organization that said "Nah, nothing is different with the ball. I don't expect them to be transparent on this topic at all.

Twins HR record might stand for a good long time. Ted Schwerzler and Chachi like this. Get the academic eggheads out of baseball. Talk to an MLB pitcher privately Page 1 of 2 1 2 Next. This really is an amazing revelation, not just for statistically minded fans but for the front offices of major league teams as well. But, then, he explicitly rejects the idea when talking about his postseason predictions: "I wasn't going to adjust for players who had played above or below expectations during the regular season.

I had to assume that the best indicator of a player's production over the next week was the body of work he had put forth over the previous games. When adjusting for RC luck and Pythagorean luck, he assumed that the resulting estimate was the team's true talent. The Astros, for instance, came out as a team.

Adjusting for talent luck, I might have bumped them up a bit; Peta did not. In any case, he easily won his "under" bet, as the Astros collapsed to 56 wins. The bigger his advantage, the more he'd bet. As a percentage of his capital, his bets went: Bet 2. For instance, one game Peta projected the Reds at a Vegas odds were only Most of his wagers came with a smaller advantage, rather than a larger one.

Here's his table of results from page : 2. Are the oddsmakers so ill-informed that they be so easily exploited? Does Vegas really leave that many 15 percent overlays, when thousands of people have read Bill James and follow sabermetrics? So I did some calculating and simulating Take a look at Peta's table. On those bets, Peta went So that's a return of 2. That comes close to Peta's report of 2. Why the difference?

Because mine is a simplified estimate. First, Peta bet a combination of favorites and underdogs, which would change the numbers slightly Now, what "should" have happened? Well, on those bets, Peta thought he had an edge of 11 to 13 percentage points. Let's call it 12, which means that he should have won 62 percent of his bets instead of 50 percent. That is: he "should have" gone roughly That would have been a return of over 15 percent, not 2.

The difference might just be luck; after all, we're only talking about 72 games. But, if you repeat the calculations for the other categories, you find that, if Peta's assumptions were correct, he should have made WAY more money.

Here are the "should haves", based on Peta's percentages I used an 18 percent edge for the top group, and the midpoint of the range for all the others : 2. And, taking compounding into account, because the capital would be growing over the course of the season Why triple? Because percent interest, compounded "instantly", yields "e" times your original capital, or Here, we have percent compounded daily, which, coincidentally, is very close.

I ran a simulation to confirm, and, yes, it seems to work out. In my simulation, the SD of the final return was around 27 percent. Peta was around 1 SD better than breaking even. But: breaking even shouldn't be the reference point. On Peto's bets, the casino had an advantage of around 1.

That eats away at your capital. If you were no better than an even guesser, my simulation says you'd wind up with around a negative 10 percent return, with an SD of 20 percent or so. And the simulation confirms that almost exactly I'm actually surprised that a random bettor can beat the house edge by this much, even 25 times out of I expected it to be much harder.


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With free agency, superstar trades and general pettiness, the offseason winds up being just as — if not way more — entertaining than the regular season.

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