brentford gillingham betting line

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Brentford gillingham betting line spread betting hedging strategies definition

Brentford gillingham betting line

He reflects on one such memorable day away at Wrexham in mid-December The Bees were in League Two back then and had arrived in North Wales later than planned, the trains causing usual havoc with delays. They quickly piled into a thatch-roofed pub for a quick pint before the 3 p. We prepared to run, but this guy staggered out in front of us, having been in there for a long old time.

He walked around the corner, came back riding a horse and off he went down the high street. We followed the horse, legged it to the ground, and ran in singing. And I believe we scored just as we got in A lot has changed since then, especially in the world of transfers. Grant remembers those afternoons in the early days of the Benham era when unknown players would arrive from all corners of Europe.

He tried to learn about the club's new signings by phoning up fans of the player's former team. The same went for managers: when they turned to Dutch coach Marinus Dijkhuizen in June , he had to contact Excelsior's fans via social media to find out what their ex-boss was like. When Benham, a lifelong Brentford fan, bought the club in , he'd already cracked the football betting market through his own algorithm of looking at statistics and trends underneath other more commonly used lines of numbers and data.

It led to him building his own company, SmartOdds, in , which provides statistical research and sports modelling services to pro gamblers. Benham wanted Brentford to embrace the method that served him well in his previous career: to achieve sustainable success without breaking the bank.

But it took time to implement in England , so he looked to try it out elsewhere, investing in underperforming Danish club FC Midtjylland in July With Rasmus Ankersen as chairman -- he now serves as co-director of football at Brentford with Phil Giles -- they started looking at "football's inefficiencies," as Ankersen puts it.

They used a model similar to expected goals and assists xG and xA and, when scouting for new talents, used their algorithm to focus on undervalued leagues and players. They also brought targeted areas of improvement from the stats they generated, and acted on their own failures; they brought in a specialist kicking coach and would use in-game feedback via text messages from analysts in the stands or at the SmartOdds base in north London.

They felt set pieces were undervalued so prioritised that and ended up scoring 25 goals from them in , 14 more than the team in second. They also created "table of justice," a theory that attempted to look at a team's true position, having removed luck and misfortune from the equation. Ankersen now uses Newcastle's fifth-place finish from the Premier League season as a prime example for the "table of justice" theory, arguing the stats dictate they should have finished far lower, but were fortunate -- Newcastle finished 16th the following season.

He calls it "contextual awareness. In his book "The Gold Mine Effect," Ankersen uses the example of Apple and Microsoft: just because a salesperson at Apple has a higher conversion rate of sales than a counterpart at Microsoft, does that necessarily make them better at their job than someone who might have a harder job of selling a similar product?

You need the full picture. In , the season after Benham took control, Midtjylland won the Danish league for the first time. They've won it twice since. Ankersen uses the "David and Goliath" example as a footballing analogy: if you haven't got as much money or resources as your rivals, then you need to find other ways to beat them.

Benham considers Dick Fosbury the archetypal innovator. He won high jump gold at the Olympics by developing a new way to jump over the bar -- headfirst, reverse, with an arched back -- which replaced the old front-on hop. The Fosbury Flop was then copied by every high jumper. When Benham took over Brentford, he wanted them to be football's equivalent of Fosbury. They couldn't rely on commercial revenue or hospitality -- Griffin Park has just 60 hospitality spaces, compared to 2, at their new ground -- so they had to generate enough money to survive and hopefully evolve through beating the transfer market.

But don't bracket this as footballing "Moneyball," the term given to Billy Beane's recruitment method with Major League Baseball's Oakland Athletics, whereby Beane used sabermetrics to assemble a World Series-challenging side on a budget comparatively minuscule to other teams in the majors. When Benham's Brentford were introduced as the "Moneyball club" at the Matchbook Traders Conference in October , he responded with: "Thanks for the kind introduction, but I hate it.

It's much misunderstood -- people say: 'Oh, Moneyball, these guys came along and applied stats to baseball' Moneyball's idea wasn't about using any old statistics, but statistics as an academic and scientific exercise to see what stats actually helped predicted things. The Moneyball label can be confusing because people think it is using any stats, rather than trying to use them in a scientific way.

Some struggled with Benham's vision -- for example, former coach Mark Warburton, who left the club in having got them promoted to the Championship and then into the playoffs, their highest league finish in 50 years. It later became apparent that Benham and Warburton disagreed over transfer policy. A February statement announcing Warburton's departure at the end of the season detailed Brentford's new direction, adopting the European model of a sporting director and head coach.

The supporters were in uproar, and it didn't help that Warburton's successor Dijkhuizen lasted just nine games before being replaced by Dean Smith, who ultimately brought stability and helped more fans come round to Benham's way of thinking. Controversially, Benham scrapped Brentford's academy in May He had grown increasingly frustrated at how the club developed players through their academy only for bigger fish to come along and swallow them up.

These players would then either be promoted to the first team or sold on for profit. The bigger clubs were no longer feared, but instead seen as partners. On top of that, everything the club learned from the Midtjylland experience bore fruit in the search for new stars. When Brentford look to buy a player these days -- usually aged 23 or under -- they use the statistics and analysis as a means to eliminate unrealistic targets or those not good enough.

Then they turn to scouts and databases to profile the player and decide if they'll work for their system. It's all done in the name of minimising risk. Take last season's transfers: David Raya, from Blackburn, was identified by then-goalkeeper coach Inaki Cana; defender Ethan Pinnock was scouted from Barnsley and answered the need for dominant aerial presence; Pontus Jansson was well known in the Championship and keen to move to Brentford; Christian Norgaard was at Brondby with the club's new head coach, Thomas Frank; Mathias Jensen arrived from Celta Vigo but was known to Frank and assistant Brian Riemer, while Mbeumo was found by their man in France , Brendan McFarlane.

He endured a turbulent start, winning just one of his first 10 games, but the club stuck to their "table of justice" and backed him, a decision that has reaped rewards. The all-conquering All Blacks rugby side of that won back-to-back Rugby World Cups had a policy that the team is always bigger than the individual. Brentford have adopted the same mantra. Check our responsible gambling page for more info.

You can comment on any preview at the GoonersGuide Facebook page. Or you can share this preview on facebook with your friends. In fact the 19th placed Gillingham have the worst away record in League One, and this is emphasized by the fact that they remain as the only team not to have recorded an away win so far. No surprise then, that Gillingham's away record reads but they do have players like striker Simeon Jackson 11 goals, 4assists and midfielder Curtis Weston 6 goals that can do some damage.

Gillingham are more than capable of scoring at least one goal as they indeed have done in their last six away matches , so keep an eye on the draw looks a good side bet 6.

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Flashback to 11 years ago, and the west London club was in the fourth tier.

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Brentford gillingham betting line Retrieved 19 May He joined Gillingham on a loan move that was made permanent in Januaryand helped the club to win promotion as League Two champions at brentford gillingham betting line end of the —13 season. But watch Brentford and you'll often see them take an extra touch to ensure a better shooting opportunity rather than snatching at a half-chance. Grant remembers those afternoons in the early days of the Benham era when unknown players would arrive from all corners of Europe. Retrieved 12 December They quickly piled into a thatch-roofed pub for a quick pint before the 3 p.
Brentford gillingham betting line They will all play a part. Skip to navigation. Brentford gillingham betting line his book "The Gold Mine Effect," Ankersen uses the example sports betting tm Apple and Microsoft: just because a salesperson at Apple has a higher conversion rate of sales than a counterpart at Microsoft, does that necessarily make them better at their job than someone who might have a harder job of selling a similar product? Grant remembers those afternoons in the early days of the Benham era when unknown players would arrive from all corners of Europe. Archived from the original on 4 August Archived from the original on 3 January
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Brentford gillingham betting line Little Common. They've won it twice since. But there's more to Brentford's success than just good scouting. Archived from the original on 25 October Hailsham Town.
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