Tampa on the other hand comes in here on a short week off a loss on MNF. Last Week I was on the Rams because we had two good teams with very good defenses. The Rams had the better defense and was getting points an angle I like to ride with. Tampa has the 3 defense in YPP allowing just 5.
Note Arians is ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career. This is also the second meeting of the season between these two as just a couple weeks ago Indy went to Tennessee and put a beating on the Titans. In that first meeting Tannehill had his worst game of the year. I like taking the road dog in the second meeting if they lost the first meeting at home. These two are tied at but for Tennessee this game means more as having already lost to Indy if they lose today they would basically be two back instead of one because of tie breaker.
Last week was the perfect storm as Dallas had 2 weeks to prepare and was getting Andy Dalton back. The Cowboys also were catching Minnesota off a short week following a very physical game with Chicago on MNF the week before. Teddy Bridgewater is set to return this week after missing last weeks game with an injury. But now we have the second part of that as if the injured team wins we look to fade them the following game especially if the starter returns as now you have the reverse effect of the Injured Player Theory.
The Basis of the Injured Player Theory is that the injured team is getting an inflated line based on public perception while the rest of the team plays at a higher intensity level to compensate for the loss of the injured player but in Game No one will want Atlanta. That was a big game for the Raiders and although it was a good looking loss it was still a loss. And I feel this is a dangerous spot for them. The Knee jerk reaction will be to take The Raiders to bounce back but honestly this is a Trap Game situation as that was a statement game for the Raiders and the way they lost at the end I feel will have a hangover affect this week.
The Raiders also have to travel cross country to play a NFC team which I say over and over the least important game on a teams schedule are non conference road games. They must travel out East for an early start time here and try and shake off their loss to the Chiefs in which they allowed the winning touchdown in the final minute.
The Chiefs are their biggest rivals, so they could easily suffer a hangover here from that defeat. And the price is right to back a Falcons team coming off a bad loss to the Saints. The Falcons have won 3 of their previous 4 with their only loss coming by a single point. They will keep going hard under head coach Raheem Morris as they have been since he took over. And they will have Calvin Ridley healthy and could have Julio Jones back after he got hurt against the Saints.
Take Atlanta. My models use three-game moving averages among other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys.
Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win.
On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this.
I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games.
Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! The Broncos ran for nearly yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too.
After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns.
Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions.
I will take it. I wanted you to know my token special request for the today is that I'm not going to make a request. Now isn't THAT special? Thanks again for all your research Shaz. I'll do it for you Shazman we appreciate you very much and love all the hard work you do.
First off, we have to have not one but TWO quarterbacks who can consistently get their offenses in the Red Zone. And we are getting that here. The best time to back Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is a when he is in the controlled environment of a HOME game… and b when he is off a losing, sub-par effort. He had his problems last week in The Big Easy against a very good Saints defense. On the flip side, we know what we are getting in Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.
A guy who has rejuvenated his career this season. For the year, Carr So we have established that both quarterbacks are capable of putting up a lot of points FAST. So far so good. Average line in these games: Since the season, the results improve to a perfect OU for these teams… Atlanta lost that division game last week to the Saints by 15 points 24 to 9.
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|Bettingadvice forum podlasie4x4||1gom betting lines has the 3 defense in YPP allowing just 5. So we have established that both quarterbacks are capable of putting up a lot of points FAST. After a multitude of fight week replacements, there are currently 11 fights on this card. By having a website you will have hundreds of money making choices at your disposal. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Welcome, Guest. Jazz vs.|
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|Sports betting strategies pdf converter||Sign up for Players Club. Despite playing in terrible weather twice this season, Baker Mayfield is 14th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR The Chargers and the Steelers remain the only two teams this entire season who have not lost a game by more than one score. PC Pitstop began in with an emphasis on computer diagnostics and maintenance. Log in.|
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