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Labels: economic calendar , economic data , Japan , outlook , us economy. On a year on year basis GDP was up 1. Much of the weakness was due to a minor loss of momentum and the impact of the Christchurch earthquake. However there are several reasons why this will likely be the low point as is set to be a strong year for economic growth in New Zealand. Digging into the details on an expenditure approach, the chart below shows the breakdown, with residential buildings have the most significant negative impact in the quarter, and with net exports also having a negative impact i.
The residential buildings aspect is likely to be a positive contributor over the next year as rebuilding efforts take place in Christchurch, broadly this effect will add to overall GDP growth over the medium term. On a sector basis, the most significant detractor was fishing, forestry and mining mining will likely also fall somewhat as the Pike river coal mine disaster has seen the mine closed for the foreseeable future , with construction and manufacturing also falling.
Slightly offsetting that was transport and communication and wholesale trade; which is a positive sign for the broader economy. The retail, accomodation and restaurants sector will likely receive a significant boost through as New Zealand hosts the Rugby World Cup go the all blacks!
So overall it was a negative result, but this was largely due to the short-term impact of the earthquake. Going into the New Zealand economy will likely pick up steam as the impact of the post-earthquake rebuilding, Rugby World Cup, still relatively loose monetary policy, and a general gathering of momentum underpin the recovery.
Sources Econ Grapher Analytics www. Saturday, December 18, Economic Calendar - 19 Dec OCT This week we review inflation data from the US and the EU. Also examined is Japan's influential Tankan business sentiment survey, and a check in on US housing starts. Finally we sum up with a look at some of the many monetary policy decisions from the past week.
So overall a pretty ho-hum result, inflation at the consumer level is still quite subdued despite inflation pressure beginning to rise at the producer level; particularly in commodities. So the case remains that the Fed still has its work cut out in terms of spurring up inflation - but the question is, when will the new worry of inflation rather than deflation come about?
The same old story of significant diversity across the region applied with the highest rate of 7. And so the Euro experiment continues, inflation will likely gradually pick up over the next year, provided that the economic recovery doesn't get derailed and there are a few risks floating around.
Japan Tankan The influential business sentiment survey, the Tankan all companies index had fell to from Large manufacturers declined to 5 from 8, and large non-manufacturers fell to 1 from 2. Small manufacturers improved to from and small non-manufacturers fell to from Thus overall the results were relatively negative, reflecting the challenging economic conditions in Japan.
Companies are finding the dual effects of fading stimulus and a stronger Yen to be having a negative impact. So the results look kinda good, but in a time series as in the chart below it's clear the market is still just muddling along. The only real good news out of this piece is that at least it didn't get worse, i. While the rest held steady, and the US made no alterations to its quantitative easing program.
Summary So we saw inflation basically flat-lining in the US for now, over in the EU inflation appears to be gradually picking up but risks remain. Japan saw less than exciting results in the Q4 reading of the Tankan survey, and the US saw flat housing starts as the housing market appears to be stabilizing somewhat.
On the monetary policy front we saw a couple tighten, a few drop, and most hold steady as monetary policy becomes more de-synchronized as the global recovery also becomes more de-synchronized. Sources 1. US Bureau of Labour Statistics www. Eurostat epp. Bank of Japan www. US Census Bureau www. The Bank of Japan just released the quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment; revealing the all companies index had fallen to from So the question is, what does this mean?
Does this herald a double dip for the Japanese economy? Well growth could well be negative in Q4, but in terms of a second recession, there is the possibility. But the Bank of Japan and the government may well react to worsening data like this by pumping in more money , or undertaking other stimulatory moves such as reducing the corporate tax rate. But with the worsening data it's little wonder that Japanese stock market valuations are below historical averages. For those that are fans of mean reversion, there is the caution that these are not normal times.
But if the government and bank of Japan can get it right, and the tides go in favor of Japan, then Japanese equities could be worth considering. Labels: bank of japan , Japan , japan tankan. China released its main economic indicators for November over the weekend, following the decision by the People's Bank of China to raise the required reserve ratio another 50bps.
This article reviews some of the key data points in the release. We look at inflation, retail sales, industrial production, money supply growth, and new loans. China Inflation China saw a further spike in inflation in November with the year on year increase in the CPI rising to 5. As with October much of the inflation was coming from food prices e. The figure came in higher than an expected 4.
And how can it address the food price inflation issue? One easy answer could be to let the yuan appreciate and then import cheaper food, but then things are generally never as easy as they seem. Loan Growth In a similar vein, loan growth came in at billion yuan vs billion in October, pushing the total new loans within inches of the full year quota of 7.
So banks will either have to just go over quota - not sure how practical that is, or wait until existing loans are repaid before extending new loans over December. As for next year, in line with the "prudent" monetary policy rhetoric the quota is likely to be a little lower, possibly 6 trillion yuan.
But keep watching this space - we all know what excessive loan growth can lead to i. US, et al. Probably the latter. On volume, automobiles and petroleum and related have dominated spending. Industrial Production Industrial production picked up slightly to So the industrial sector is still cranking away, churning out cars and various other machines and equipment. And given the record exports number in November it's likely that both external, but predominantly internal demand will sustain activity in the medium term include government in the internal part.
Money Supply Finishing up with money supply, M2 grew at Basically money supply growth is still carrying on at a relatively elevated pace, and this will put some pressure on inflation but some money supply growth is needed. It's also worth at this juncture pointing out where some of the key rates are at, the PBOC's policy rate is 5. Monetary policy will likely be a hot topic in China in the short-medium term, but let's hope they get inflation under control and achieve a sustainable growth outcome.
Summary It's always a good chance to get a feel for where the Chinese economy is when they release the monthly main economic indicators. Indeed, I always try to expand the range of indicators and data sources when it comes to analyzing China e. But anyway we can takeaway some conclusions from this review of the November data. First of all the rate of inflation is increasing, and it appears to be a tough problem to tackle.
Second, loan growth and money supply growth are still going strong, and likely aren't helping the inflation fighting effort. Third, there is still signs of a pretty strong economy e. So it seems, given relative economic strength that the authorities will have room to maneuver in bringing inflation down - but there is a palpable risk of overdoing things or forcing a slowdown but then isn't that better than blowing a bubble?
National Bureau of Statistics www. People's Bank of China www. CFLP www. Economic Calendar - 11 December YoY 7. MoM 1. Subscribe to: Posts Atom. Econ Grapher Visit the Econ Grapher official website: econgrapher. Research Clippings. Trade Responsibly. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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The events are updated automatically upon the release of new data. No matter what time frame you trade on, it's important to keep an eye on upcoming calendar events daily since they are likely to impact the financial markets including forex, stocks, bonds and commodities.
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Know ahead of time of upcoming economic data releases or events that may cause sudden volatility and negatively affect your trading, such as any open positions. Due to the increased market volatility, it is important to remember that trading around news events can result in significant slippage.
Be sure to manage your risk and avoid overleveraging and overexposure! He was a self-made man who owed his lack of success to nobody. Joseph Heller. Economic Calendar BabyPips. Week Day. We have a dedicated team of economists and journalists who update all the data 24h a day, 5 days a week. To trade Forex through fundamental analysis, you have to check how economies over the world are doing based on their macroeconomics data such as GDP, employment, consumption data, inflation… , watching closely the countries of the currencies you are trading the most.
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Nov Chicago Fed National Activity. Get real-time event notifications at. If you always need to see the same data when you come to our calendar, you can save your settings the Bank of England, whose Governor is Andrew Bailey. What is the Economic Calendar. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q4. What do you know about Forex rates. Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q4. Timing All data are displayed. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4. You might want to focus team selects the stocks with and ignore the rest: less.View our fast-updating and interactive economic calendar for important events and releases that affect the forex, stocks and commodities markets. The Live Economic Calendar keeps you ahead of all market moving events including economic indicators, auctions and speeches. Our live economic calendar keeps you ahead of all market moving events including economic indicators, auctions and speeches.