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Flexible monthly access to CEIC data. Try Now. MYR mn. Mar - Jun Mar - Sep Gold Production kg yearly - Jan - Sep Minerals Production Metric Ton yearly - Motor Vehicle Production Unit yearly - Silver Production Metric Ton yearly - Mar - Dec Dec - Jun Employed Persons Person monthly Jan - Sep Forecast: Employment Person mn yearly -. Forecast: Population Person mn yearly - Population Person mn yearly - Jan - May Dec - Dec Jul - Oct Jan - Aug Jun - Jun Aluminum: Exports USD th yearly - Exports: Medicament USD th yearly - Imports: Medicament USD th yearly - The study further suggested the need to accelerate domestic savings to finance capital accumulation and foster higher income and growth.
However, the literature also encompasses studies accounting the reverse causality between savings and economic growth, that is, that growth precedes savings. Keynesian theory argued that savings are a leakage dependent on the level of income or its growth Tang and Tan Carroll and Weil asserted that the effect of savings on growth may be overstated. They found that growth Granger-cause savings, but savings do not Granger-cause growth.
In fact, Carroll et al. Similarly, Sinha and Sinha , Gavin et al. However, Bolarinwa and Obembe and Mohan observed mixed results. Specifically, Bolarinwa and Obembe found unidirectional causality running from economic growth to gross domestic savings for Ghana and Burkina Faso; from gross domestic saving to economic growth for Liberia, Niger, and Sierra; and no causality between savings and growth for Nigeria. Similarly, Odhiambo found bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth.
However, Sothan identified no causal relationship between savings and economic growth in Cambodia. Budha found short-run bidirectional causality between investment and gross domestic product and between gross domestic savings and investment, but no short-run causality between gross domestic savings and gross domestic product in Nepal. Similarly, it is also important to note that extant studies have even found a negative relationship between domestic savings and economic growth.
For instance, Verma , Sahoo et al. Aghion et al. Similarly, Chao et al. Therefore, with no global consensus on the relationship between savings, investment, and growth, this study analyzes this relationship in the context of Nepal. Despite the abundance of studies on investment, savings, and growth in other countries, their results cannot be generalized in the context of Nepal because of the differences between political systems, financial systems, policies and regulations, and other country-specific factors affect this relationship.
Therefore, this study contributes to the literature by providing recent evidence on the relationship between savings, investment, and growth in Nepal. Data for gross domestic savings, gross domestic investment, and economic growth were collected from the World Bank of the World Bank. The graphical representation of the data is shown in Fig.
The figure shows that all variables used in this study are upward trending. Therefore, before using any econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between savings, investment, and economic growth, it is important to test the stationarity of the variables. Thus, considering the trending nature of the data, this study used augmented Dickey—Fuller ADF and Phillips—Perron PP unit root tests along with the Zivot and Andrews ZA unit root test, which endogenously corrects for one structural break to test the order of the integration among the variables.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the real GDP per capita, gross domestic savings, and investment are integrated of order one i. However, Lee and Chang argued that standard ADF and PP tests that lead to the non-rejection of a unit root may be suspect when the sample under consideration incorporates economic events capable of causing shifts in regime.
During the same year, the then King Gyanendra Shah declared a state of emergency in Nepal. The ZA test results find a breakpoint in in gross domestic savings and in in investment. Considering the nature of the variables all are I 1 and the presence of structural breaks, this study has made the use of three cointegration techniques namely, Johansen cointegration, Gregory—Hansen cointegration, and ARDL. Following the Johansen cointegration results, the Gregory—Hansen procedure for cointegration is estimated to test the existence of a long-run relationship between growth, savings, and investment with an endogenously determined structural break.
The results show a long run cointegrating relationship between growth, savings, and investment when economic growth is used as a dependent variable in the structural break of As previously mentioned, the break year of detected by the Gregory—Hansen procedure corresponds with the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency in Nepal. Although the Johansen and Gregory—Hansen procedures for cointegration show a cointegrating relationship between savings, investment, and growth, Pesaran et al.
Therefore, owing to the low power and other problems associated with these tests, the ARDL bounds testing approach for cointegration has also been performed to analyze the long and short-run dynamics of savings, investment, and growth. Since ARDL does not consider the structural breaks in the system, a dummy variable based on the ZA unit root test and Gregory—Hansen cointegration is introduced in the model to represent the breakpoint in the series. Therefore, the estimated ARDL representation takes the following forms:.
Since the results of the ZA test show that the regressand GDP per capita undergoes a structural break in , dummy variable D is introduced in eq. The dummy variable D takes 0 until and 1 thereafter. Similarly, dummy variable D is introduced in eq. The values p, q, r are the selected number of lags for the cointegrating equations based on the SIC.
The bound testing has been performed to test for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables by conducting an F-test for the joint significance of the coefficients of the lagged levels of the variables. The Wald coefficient restriction test has been performed to test for the level effect with the null hypothesis of no level effect, that is,.
In sum, this study tests for the joint significance of the lagged level variables using the standard Wald or F-test. If the calculated F-statistic is greater than the upper bound critical values I 1 provided by Pesaran et al. However, if the calculated F-statistic is below the lower bound critical values I 0 , the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected. However, if the calculated F-statistic falls between the lower and upper bound critical values, the cointegration inference is indecisive.
ECM indicates both long-run causality and the speed of adjustment. If this is not the case, the cointegration findings would not be reliable. This indicates a cointegrating relationship between savings, growth, and investment. However, the results show no evidence of cointegration or a long-run relationship when saving and investment are used as dependent variables.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the long-run causality is unidirectional from savings and investment to economic growth in Nepal. However, these findings are not consistent with the Carroll—Weil hypothesis Carroll and Weil , which states that economic growth causes savings. Similarly, our results are not consistent with the findings of Abu , Bolarinwa and Obembe , Mohan , Odhiambo , and Sothan However, this result is not significant.
The negative long-run beta coefficients for gross domestic savings indicate domestic savings do not influence growth in Nepal. This finding is against the logic of the endogenous growth model, which states that savings influence growth. One explanation comes from Aghion et al. Specifically, according to Aghion et al. However, catching up with the frontier in any sector requires the co-operation of a foreign investor who is familiar with frontier technology and a domestic entrepreneur familiar with the local conditions to which the technology must be adapted.
In such a country, domestic savings matter for technology adaptation and therefore growth. However, Nepal has not been able to draw on the technological potential and other contributions that foreign investment can make to the process of development Pant, In other words, Nepal has failed to catch up with the frontier and, hence, domestic savings do not have a positive impact on economic growth in this case.
This finding is also consistent with those of Sahoo et al. Similarly, the results show that investment defined as fixed capital formation has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nepal. This shows that formation of capital in an economy leads to higher growth in the long run. The diagnostic statistics show the used ARDL model seems to be data congruent and free from specification errors.
Further, the error terms are normally distributed Jarque—Bera test and serially independent LM test and the model is dynamically stable Ramsey test. Therefore, the results are not spurious. This indicates that the Nepalese economy was unable to sustain the pace of its economic growth during the study period. Similarly, unlike the long run, the short-run impact of gross domestic savings is positive.
However, the coefficients are not significant. This shows the weakness of the economy in using savings in productive sectors. The main policy implication of this finding is that policymakers should formulate policies in such a way that savings could be utilized in productive sectors by increasing capital formation in the country. From Fig. This study examined the relationship amongst saving, growth and investment in the context of Nepal using an annual dataset for — The time series properties of the data were first analyzed for possible structural breaks using the Zivot and Andrews model.
The empirical evidence indicates a stable long-run relationship between savings, investment, and economic growth in the presence of structural breaks but only when economic growth is the dependent variable. This indicates that the long-run relationship is running from savings and investment to economic growth in Nepal.
These findings support the view of Solow in that savings cause economic growth. This implies policymakers must emphasize increasing savings in the country. Since Nepal is an import-based country financed by remittances, the domestic savings along with remittances has been spent largely on the consumption of imported goods and services. Therefore, this creates an urgency for a policy that focuses on utilizing available resources into the tradable sector of the economy by encouraging both production-based consumption and remittance-based investment.
Similarly, the long-run estimates of the ARDL model indicate that investment has a positive significant impact on economic growth. However, the results showed a negative impact of gross domestic savings on economic growth in Nepal. This finding indicates the weakness of the Nepalese financial sector in mobilizing the savings to the productive sectors.
These findings further support the argument that savings in Nepal are not investment friendly. Therefore, to fulfil the current economic target of the government of graduating the country to the middle-income category by , policymakers have to pay attention to the existing relationship between savings, investment, and growth. This also highlights the urgency in formulating policies that enhance the effective mobilization of savings into productive sectors.
Such policies will in turn lead to increases in investment and thus economic growth. We strongly suggest that generalizations of this study should be considered with caution. The main limitation of the study corresponds to the country considered. That is, the study is confined to the Nepalese context.
Therefore, the results may not be relevant to the contexts of other countries. The incumbent government has a more than a two third majority in the parliament. The stakeholders are thus construing it as a stable government at least for the next five years. Abu N Saving-economic growth nexus in Nigeria, — Granger causality and co-integration analyses.
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PSL Q Rev 44 — Rev Econ Stat 82 2 — Vikalpa 43 4 — J Dev Policy Pract 2 1 — Budha B A multivariate analysis of savings, investment and growth in Nepal. Am Econ Rev 90 3 — Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 1— Dermirguc-Kunt A Finance and economic development: Policy choices for developing countries Working Paper No.
World Bank Policy Research. Domar ED Capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment. Econometrica, Journal of the Econometric Society 14 2 — Oxf Bull Econ Stat 58 3 — Macmillan and Co. Jangili R Causal relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India—what does the relation imply?. Indian Econ Rev 45 1 — Technological Econ Dev Econ — Energy Econ 27 6 — Levine R Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. J Econ Lit 35 2 — Lucas RE Jr On the mechanics of economic development.
J Monetary Econ 22 1 :3—
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|Lego gwk investments||The figure shows that all variables used in this study are upward trending. Global Competitiveness Index Score yearly savings-investment gap malaysia The bound testing has been performed to test for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables by conducting an F-test for the joint significance of the coefficients of the lagged levels of the variables. The Wald coefficient restriction test has been performed to test for the level effect with the null hypothesis of no level effect, that is. Funding The authors declare that no funding was received for this article.|
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