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April is the cruellest month, or so said the poet TS Eliot in the years following the Spanish flu pandemic of more than a century ago. That will be when publicly traded business development companies — the closed-end funds that finance a swath of small and mid-market businesses in the US — will be reporting their second-quarter results. And these results are bound to be largely dreadful. BDCs are expected to post significant writedowns and defaults on portfolio company loans because revenues collapsed throughout much of the economy.
This could cause their share prices to fall further and result in them losing their investment grade ratings. An increase in non-accrual loans could also trip other covenants under their credit facilities. These measures have brought many economies to an abrupt halt.
Already, 36 million Americans have lost their jobs, and GDP in the US contracted by almost 5 percent in the first quarter, even though the effects of the pandemic had barely begun to be felt before the quarter ended on 31 March. He notes that aggregate personal, corporate and government debt levels are more than 60 percent higher than they were during the crisis.
It is difficult to see how things could get much worse for BDCs, based on their recent trading. The Cliffwater BDC Index, which measures the performance of exchange-traded BDCs, plunged nearly 50 percent in March to its lowest level so far this year, though it had recovered to a negative 36 percent at the beginning of May.
Still, Stephen Nesbitt, chief executive of Cliffwater, points out that the March sell-off was less steep than during the global financial crisis. But BDCs, which stepped into the breach to fund riskier companies after regulators forced banks to tighten their lending standards following the last crisis, have been largely excluded from the massive regulatory relief being pumped into the financial system.
The uncertainty about the duration and extent of the economic lockdown makes for little visibility into second-quarter revenues and earnings. One thing does seem clear, however. He says that in the first quarter, liquid loans were already written down by Given that many businesses saw 90 percent of their revenues disappear in the first quarter, Lynch is expecting a substantial increase in losses and defaults in the second, as portfolio companies miss their debt payments.
The longer the economic crisis continues, the greater the possibility that even those credits that are still managing to pay interest in the second quarter will eventually default. Any pressure on net asset values could trigger debt covenants, which would increase the potential for defaults. Declines in credit quality led to a default under its credit facility, thereby cutting off access to its line of credit.
Dividends, one of the principal attractions of BDCs for retail investors, are at risk. Golub Capital has cut its quarterly dividend by 12 percent and Gladstone Capital Corp has lowered its monthly payout by 7 percent. Main Street Capital recommended halting its biannual supplemental dividend. Before BDCs began announcing their first-quarter earnings in early May, Lynch was expecting them to report NAV declines of percent for the period, though he had not issued any forecasts on declines for the second quarter.
Consequently, he expects to see more equity issues or rights offerings in the second and third quarters, akin to those announced in the past two months by Bain Capital and Golub Capital. Golub spoke of fortifying its balance sheet, as well as positioning it to take advantage of opportunities resulting from the crisis.
Although it reported that its first-quarter net asset value had declined 10 percent, Ares maintained its dividend. Meanwhile, Ares is maintaining close communication with private equity sponsors and borrowers on a weekly, if not daily, basis. But not every BDC has such a significant cushion. Given the uncertainty about the duration and depth of the economic stoppage, many BDC portfolio companies are already hoarding cash, slashing expenses and delaying payments as much as possible, according to Palmer of the SBIA.
These smaller companies are much more sensitive to volatility, and do not maintain huge liquidity reserves. No one is even able to transact. Consequently, banks are going to be very cautious in providing credit to companies. Those BDCs with a tilt towards sectors that are most exposed to pandemic-related issues, such as travel and leisure, energy and transport, could find themselves in tighter straits than those that invested in healthcare and technology. He says the market has already identified five or six viable takeover candidates.
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