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Is it possible to put the NBA stats up on your site too. Just common sense - I thought that by crossing the data of goals of the home team and the away team I would get a good picture of the amount of goals scored in the particular match. And then I decided I should use the stats I calculated and present the minimum and maximum amount of goals, according to the stats. That way I can see how risky the bet would be - by relating to the minimum and maximum as true borders of the amount of goals possible in the game.

I didn't think at first it would succeed this much, but obviously it has. I'm also very surprised to see how well this is working in NBA bets now that people are trying to implent it to other sports. It's getting clearer every day that this system is truly a breakthrough, because a stroke of luck can last only so long I'll leave that to all of you, as I see some people are applying the system to all sorts of different leagues and competitions and delivering satisfying results.

I'll stick to the major leagues for now :. No statistical theory behind the system. I'm not as surprised perhaps that it has produced some good reults in the NBA. I mean, in theory, it should really work for most sports given that it is quite a strict statistical-based approach. I mean today I placed two bets on the NBA which both turned out correct From the reading hte other posts, it seems that this method really is making some difference thats for sure. Well,I'm not completely surprised, since as you said if it works for soccer due to statistics, why wouldn't it work for other sports?

But still you gotta admit it's still astonishing how adding a couple of numbers can produce such accuracy. The fact it works for NBA as well just strengthens the possibility of this system working in the long run don't forget, 70 bets are a lot, but there's still some more "proving" to be done. So I guess surprised is not the right word but rather I'm "delighted" as it helps proving this system to be effective. This topic is getting hit so so much recently it just goes to prove how popular the simplest of systems can be.

Could you please keep on writing your bets and results at this thread. I mean the percentages of won tips and won "money". To see if we could outperform in long time, please keep posting your stats! Thanks a lot. Jovica S , where did you find this statistics?

My bet is based on statistics from newspaper. That bets may be not work. All teams play a little of games. One, two or 3 games home. This is very low for statistics calculating. I'm still writing my bets - my last one was Unterhaching vs FC Koln won. I don't wanna bet on random games - like WC or U21 friendlies, I'm waiting for good oppurtunities. Sometimes the best approach to take is right under your nose.

Does it mean itll fail,too? Jovica S , This day is low. This is maybe expect, after yesterday very good bets on U Original bank: 40 euro New bank: I've noticed that in a lot of cases, the calculated stats tend to be extermely close to the bookies predicted number.

Maybe this is conincidence, perhaps the bookies a slightl;y more sophisticated, but more or less similar approach to determining the likely total goal score in an NBA game. So keep on going :. I'll keep a check on it for the next week or so and post the results in here. Home team: But I am very curious to see what happens still CG , Mine brings up both Houston and Philadelphia as overs.

What is your "different angle". It will be good to see as many different view points on this and hopefully try and identify which way produces postive trends. Anyway, at least one of us will get lucky on the Philly match :lol:. I adjusted the NBA scores the hard way. Just checked all the OT games for the Home team when playing at home, allthe OT games for Away team when playing away, etc I used Sportsline. If anyone knows of a good site with very good stats on NBA it would be excellent.

I know Interwettne nad Livescore are pretty good, but has limitations. A bit questionable. Houston home is The average is Jovica S , Some picks for today. CG , Just been looking through Finnish basketball odds at NordicBet mainly because of placing bets on Trotting from Onslow and came up with 1 that 'would' be a bet And a new concept, I'm totally unsure wether it is suitable to apply the system to this, maybe a little too adventureous so if the above win and these next ones lose don't be surprised.

Home: Wrong, they were fine. The system can't be applied to spread betting as I said, it was just a wacky try. You need more than 2 games in order to test the system's accuracy. Calculating the NBA stats is a major drag but its the only way to see if there if this strategy is working. You're right about the Spurs game being uncertain too actually.

Hopefully its gonna be a profitable day :D. It was completely uncertain according to the stats see lOZ's calculations , same goes to Lakers' game CG , Geez, how was Detroit a pick? TomPearce , Nice work yuvalfra again last night, i went for the double with championship game and French game 2.

Detroit , hi yuvalfra. No,I didn't notice your post, I just saw Mighty-duck posted "results" from last night, and now I see those are the picks you posted last night. French league is very predictable, but odds are very low, thats y i may just have these 3 french games together as a treble, which makes up odds of about 3.

When there is doubt, I take the value odd - as you can see many value bets today in French league 1. I knew it was a mistake. Jovica S , Some interesting picks for today:. OVER :cry:. Please post picks only if they are in accorance to the system even if they are all right, it doesn't reflect the system's effectiveness and tells a "lie". Chelsea-Bolton, how could you pick under at an odd of barely 1.

Average homegaols : 1. Average homegaols : 4. And since I didn't pick most of the games from English Championship I'm guessing there are wrong picks there too. Exactly TomPearce. I give less importance to the odd, rather more to the stats. TomPearce , man u vs Charlton Under :D. OT excluded. Seems that the Cleveland Match is the best bet for the day using the stats.

Others too close to the line. Been using the system on NBA with some success. I find the average of the 5 totals and if there is a difference of 10 or more with the bookies line then its a bet. Crystal Palace - Newcastle U. OVER 1. OVER This two it's same as your picks. Leeds U.

UNDER 1. Nottingham F. Classic for 2 or 3 goal, but number near 2 goal. I expet exactly 2 goal on this game. Plymouth Argyle - Stoke C. Watford - Rotherham U. Chelsea - Bolton W. I play this game OVER 3. This is your sistem.

I'm never place my bet before good analizing game. Time it's limt for my explanation for all bet. One more. Because I'm risk more on this games. I just found some of your picks not in accordance to the system. I think that the avg. Anyway, keep posting your picks and we'll see, maybe your approach will deliver more successful results. TomPearce , yuvalfra not such a good day today, not sure on what leagues you think are doing well so far but i thought i could run them down for you this includes todays games, not including the French and Portugiese as they have not started as of yet.

England Championship yes. Detroit , hello yuvalfa!!! Detroit , yuvalfa, what are your picks for sunday? Bogdan , Good idea, and this strategy can be improved a little using maybe another average than aritmethic, and to ponderate the results depending of key-player missing. Bookies Line: The av was Exactly 10 points under. TomPearce , Well done on your win detroit, may it continue, i had my french treble with lower odds but at 2. I've been impressed very much about this kind of strategy,so I started to make some proves on leagues of previous years Here are a little result:.

I was thinking A simple variability index that goes from 0 to 1. Have you never tryed to add something like that to goals average? It is just like a year ago leauge lives now,day by day, game by game. I make it using a database of previous years. If you need details of my first results i just posted tell me, so i will find a way to make you get my excel sheets with them.

Did you check each game by the stats until it was played? If you could explain more about the check-ups you made I would be glad to hear, and learn from your research - thanks! Be lucky. I didnt get to calculate all the stats. But thanks for letting me know about the Charlotte match. I will have a small punt on it. Oh, and BTW, what bookie do you use? I have to change bookies cos the odds i am getting are a bit too low.

Its important to assess how the method didn't work as much as it did.. I have the calendars and all the results, i take them in day by day, so it is just like the league is running for real. The stats refresh day by day. So, with the stats of th day i calculate 12th day under over results. Then i put in the results of games in calendar and the stats refresh. At 13th game i have the stats th game. Anyway, to have some statistics to work on, i wait the 11th day to start testing, cause i think a lower number of played games isn't sufficient to have an idea of a trend of goals.

For the moment i have tested it on 60 games of english 1st division now championship. I will put my work on the leagues you told, portugal, french 1st and english 1st. I wil analyze years from up to current year. Obviously the odd is very important. For calculating money I can only put into my model a "paviment odd" No thanks required Yuvralfa - just glad to use your excellent formula.

I am just as interested to see what the stats turn up as a lot of other people I imagine. As for the NBA results over the past two days, it is very curious how some of the final scores are close the the predicted stats. On the other hand, a few of the predictions have been completely off. However, this should be expected as whenever you are using probability there is always going to be at least one completely wrong game now and again. Also, I didnt put a prediction down for every match in the last round of games because of the unceretainty.

This is not a bad result at all. But again, I wouldnt be willing to put money behind those uncertain games just yet - as they may just be pure luck. OT points exlcuded from calculations Thank God theres only 4 games this round 8O. Yes, I think it is worth a shot. Some bookies line is moving towards now I actually too the over on this match. Jovica, this is not an exact science. I think he took the under as a calculated risk as there are no overs to speak of Tipoune56 , As many of yours, I think Yuvalfra has made a superb work with his formula, and I just regret to not have followed him since the start, but i wonder if, for a few games, we shouln't include some qualitative information like weather forecasts or a lay-off of a coach Like today, I wouldn't bet on Villa- Totenham because here is a team which played very defensive and now seems have chosen an attacking tactics with the coach change Good Luck!

The bookies line for the Dallas v Minnesota match is now around At the time I posted the stats, I think I got the line at I see the sense in what you are saying. However, I think when you start to take those factors in to consideration, you get abit too complicated. I think there is something worthshile in sticking with the simplicity of the current method. Well, don't relate to the new lines, the fact the line has gone down just goes to show that many people are betting under on the original line and that is probably the right pick.

Tipoune56, the "magic" of the system is that it is very simple. Stats only are taken in consideration. If we mix our own opinions into the bets, then there is no use for the formula, luck will be a bigger factor than it is now, and believe me it's a big factor even now - this is not a magic formula, just a reflective of the stats in one whole combination, that delivers possibly better probabiliy of winning than in normal bets - that probability can still never be certain, so you can always lose as any bet.

So anyway what I'm trying to say is that it would take too much time and effort to check every game thoroughly, plus it could harm the effectiveness of the system if we judge each pick seperately. I think the only factor that should be taken in consideration is weather, if you know of a game that has very damp conditions and your bet is OVER, then it should be a no-bet for sure. TomPearce , again looked at the spurs game tonight, and was gonna take quite nice odds, really should have too, villa very defencive, and not scoring many either, but agree with the change of coach can effect things and also the weather, as we saw last week in the Juve game.

I would look at that statistic as a secondary consideration only if the main stats don't quite add up either way. Yes, I also checked the H2H I very seldomly do and saw most of the last meetings have been under. I will not, however, change my bet or decide on no-bet due to h2h. TomPearce , Yeah stick with the system, but if for example you see value in a bet it maybe that these stats may help with it, it will be interesting to see if it does have any effect.

Some other observations these are not meant to be scientific of anything Generally, NBA game totals tend to be closer to the predicted home team stat and the average. This may mean that, if in doubt, you might want to put more focuse on comparing the bookies line with the average home team game total as opposed to the away team average game total. So far we have accomplished that, which is very encouraging.

I'm also trying to keep track of the way in which the stats give an accurate prediction of the game result. This is just out of interest - and people can make their own conclusions. I know abosolutely nothing about basketball and dont pretend to be an expert at all, so if this is successful in the long run than it will be all the more likely that the method has something going for it.

In soccer a surprising goal can easily ruin an under, or a streak of misses can prevent an over. About a year ago when I would bet at my local bookie I would be amazed at how the bookie always managed to supply an accurate line. A game with a line of f. I guess it's really all about the stats. So anyway I do agree with you, possibly NBA in the long run could be more profitable than soccer. Just wondering if you calculate the stats for NBA manually or do you use a spreadsheet?

Whatever you use thanks for the good work.. As you say it is amazing how accurate the line can be at times. My estimation would be that the average odd out of the won bets so far is 1. I guess I could run a check on it later on and see.. I think the fact there are quite a few value bets won at an odd of 2. Hi Dickiebow. I just use the stats from Nba. The only tedious thing about it is where you have to remove the OT points from consideration.

Otherwise its just number crunching. I dont' think soccer is bad at all though. In fact i'm very much still punting on it. Its just that you may find that the soccer results tend to be more extreme e. And then you can factor in a bit more margin for error hoperfully.

It only takes 1 red card in a soccer match, or, rain to completely throw the stats out the window for that match. Then again, over the course of half a season etc,, theses little glitches become less and less significant in the stats. I have been watching your thread on the nba stats with a lot of interest but would like to have a go at working out the stats for myself. I have been on nba. Do I need to go through the results individually to get the average scores etc or is there a table I can work it out from??

There are any number of sites you can shose from. Try the nba. I use the live score. Unfortunately, there is no program around to do this for me, and i hate spreadsheets are not my forte. Good luck with it. TomPearce , cant believe the Denver game didnt go over it was sure to go over i thought, only 3 points away from the line thought, so not far wrong. Hey Tom, Close but no cigar today. I was actually surprised that the Denver total got close to the over as it got off to a pretty slow start I guess the lesson is not to be too greedy and stick to the "safer" bets at least for the time being.

TomPearce , RW Essen v Mnchen is very much bound to go over, the last games and this whole season all both teams games have had many goals in them. TomPearce , Essen have half their team out with flu so i have just been reading. Non-standart conditions heavy rain, many suspensions, or even in-game occurances like red cards and such. It was still a "good" bet going by the system.

I guess betting 2 bets a time is not good because it gives a narrow expression of the system. So there is still potential for a decent profit to be made if we can stick to the safer bets. I am really using them. But I wonder. I don't have the stats myself. Thanks for the comments. When you say "gap" I asume you are meaning between the bookies line and the "Average"?

I think that this seems to be a sensible approach for sure. Its the only way really to see if somethings there. OT excluded from calculations. I have not been looking at the "gap" between average and bookies line before I saw the calculations for the Toronto game. Therefor I have no stats yet.

CG , If you go to www. If you still have your 'average' totals, you should be able to compare them that way. TomPearce , anyone looking at any fottie games tonight, the one that was posted earlier. TomPearce , Regand, just looking for stats with the teams in the english campionship, is this still a working progress, as it only has Millwalls stats entered on it? Yep we did good. The stats for that one wre fairly certain of an over. Did you manage to get odds of above 1. TomPearce , yeah 1.

TomPearce , yuvalfra, is there any reason why the Dutch league has not yet been tested, just wondered if there was a reason you have avoided it as of yet? I'm testing the system for past leagues, and for now, the system could be good with odds at 1. I agree with yuvalfra about things making the system fail: meteo conditions, injured, red cards.

Just for example Reggina-Roma has been played in a poor excuse of a football pitch, with mud's areas here and there on the field I try to propose: what do you all think about a serious work together to find out injured, red cards, teams regular line up for each league we test? I think if 10 guys work seriously on 10 leagues the results could be better for everyone What do you think?

A much better day on the NBA - 2 out of 2 correct. Lets push on with some more wins tomorrow Those stats are amazing And since we're dealing here with a fixed odd 1. Trier v FC Koln have only played twice in the past but both games having gone over looks good also.

Cheltenham v Darlington UNDER not sure about this but stats point it out as a good bet but as it is an untested wont put any money on it just yet! I put on this bet only 75 cents And bet on the ones I have on my bookies TomPearce , sounds good to me, i am also looking at rating games out of 15 or 20,.

I don't know if I have right understood If so, I think it could be a good idea, it could put on evidence team state of form I don't agrre with last one, last five meetings between the clubs is not significant, it could be someway significant if you know the teams lineups of all games I continue thinking that we could work all together to find out injuries and red cards for games we valutate I think it is a very important information. Let's continue working guys 8 8 8. But truly, most of the times it could just mislead rather than help.

Hi GS, and thanks for the comment. I stand to be corrected, but the odds I took were from Oddsexchange at the time of posting the stats. I may have either misread the odds on offer again please correct me anyone if I'm wrong or else they have changed since the original posting. Please always double-check the odds that I post. Next bets Jovica S , More interesting games Stoke C. Queens Park R. I'll ad them. Jovica S , Thanks Jovica.

I'm glad, if I can help. Did you not notice the [value] tags? That means I think that there is some possibility of success considering the high odd offered. TomPearce , according to the way i am looking at things for today. TomPearce , The 5 picks i have decided to go for are as follows. CG , The 5 picks i have decided to go for are as follows. Its got nothing to do with the system, but on past H2H, the Stoke and Lyon games will go over.

Forinstance if the min value is 1. But that's not critical. Jovica S , The 5 picks i have decided to go for are as follows. My expirience is: If exist conflikt between H2H and yuvalfra system on games, yuvalfra system will be best. Lasharela , -. Min is 1. I picked under, not over.. TomPearce , With 5 minutes to go this is correct but here is an example.

We have taken some major turbulence in the past few days with these NBA games, but hopefully the fun of bad results will slow down soon Odds from pinnacle If it so test stystem with max odd you have. I will see how these go and continue with this over the next few weeks and keep you posted on the out comes of this system. Thanks for all the hard graft on the NBA stats, much appreciated. The stats on Memphis v Dallas got me out of a hole.

Lasharela , Tottenham-Middles Over 2. This is what I calculated fo today so far thanks to yuvalfra. I'm goin to bet for real money today, any suggestions would be helpful thanks in advance. Thanks Dickie. I hae to say, the results have been quite frustrting the past week. But I dont put a prediction down that I wont have a bet on myself, if thats any consolation even if it is only small bets at the moment.

Did you only take hte Memphis v Dallas match, and if so, what made you not pick the others just out of interest? Those Premier league matches look pretty strong bets i would say. The only thing with the ARsenal match is that the recent game agasint?? The match between Montpellier and Chateroux has all stats at between 2- 3. I am putting a small punt on total number of goals: 2 goals 3.

If all goes well, there should be beers in the fridge on Monday. Personally what we seem to have found is betting on the top teams does not always seem to work. Even though the stats point it out as over the players playing will effect this thats why for me this is a NO BET. As for Real today, very unpredictable, win the other week, drawing in mid week game. TomPearce , P. You can calculate the amount of goals the hometeam gets per homegame and you can calculate the amount of goals the awayteam makes per awaygame.

Those two amounts are not equal so you could end up with two different numbers. For example the match of Utrecht states either a total of 3 goals or a total of almost 5 goals and the match of Feyenoord gives a total of 4 or 2 goals. Memphis v Dallas was my only NBA bet.

Selection couldn't be simpler I just select the match with the biggest difference between the overall average and the bookies line.. I reckon using a staking plan like rolling doubles or multi-link staking this could show a worthwhile weekly profit. I know that the Detroit Bucks game had a gap of about 8 and the Orlando match had a gap of about 6, so you really seem to be very strict on only picking the games wher the gap is at least I should have stuck with your advice and not aken anything with a gap less than There were a couple of games with gaps of above 10 which stuffed up I also think you are right in being more selective with the bets.

I will have to change my philosophy on this too. My thoughts are like this now.. Originally I was recluctant to include considerations about player injuries and other non-stat factors when forming a prediction. I mean, in hindsight having read some of the pre-match reports, it was clear as daylight that there wer some key players out in some of hte losing matches which may have had a bearing on the game result then again, who knows, maybe it wouldnt have Hopefully this extra leve l of analysis will help to fine tune the method at least for NBA games.

And remember, dont take these blindly, they are only a starting point. If you see any major injuries before the match, then reconsider the pick on an OVER for instance. Lets hope for some good results, finally in NBA and soccer. Hi Yuvalfra. Yes, the NBA stats look pretty good on paper at least. Great work on the soccer picks - we sure had a bit of a hammering the last few days.. Does anyone know bookies who offer bets for normal time in NBA only?

I know Centrebet and gamebookers etc include OT when determining total point score in a match. And which bookies offer these on a regular basis. Also German 2nd and Portugal are offered by some. All these are offered by most bookies. TomPearce , didnt get my chance to post my pick for today but it was. Today is Orlando v Boston Under This is just a TEST using a slight variation of the method. But hopefully it will be successful over the long run and I will explain later.

Yep, that was a good pick. Though I was a bit scared at the end with those 2 ltae second half goals 8O. Jovica S , didnt get my chance to post my pick for today but it was. Gintas , Hi All, I was following this thread for a couple of days, getting more and more interested.

I know, this stuff works quite good on NBA but there is still some things to be improved. TomPearce , always good to try out new ways as things i am sure can always be imporved upon. Will be watching this one as the NBA looks very promising. I am also doing the same with football based out of As for tonight only one correction. As i say still in its early days but with the right pick could become promising, will keep a track until this weekend and see what happens till then.

Gooc luck with your system - I hope that you are able to change our NBA fortunes at least :D Acually, i've had better luck on the soccer lately as i've notice many of our friends on this board have too. Anyway, it will be excellent to compare how the results of these systems to see what works and what doesnt. My picks are:. From a rough analysis of hte past match results, there seems a trend that the end score more often than not gravitates towards the dominant team pehraps as that team dictates play esier , and even more so whe nthe dominant tema is playing at home.

Again, this is not perfect, but worth texperimenting with. Its still jut a crude variation on the original method, and surely needs to be tests further Just wanted to clarify, how did you decide to consider 1 and 2 above? Are these just taken from Sportsillustrated. When calculating the Home, Away, av, max min, do you remove the points scored by the teams in OT matches?

Thanks and congrats again :D. I have made some money using it and now it's time to thank yuvalfra for the system. So any predictions for the NBA matches tonight? Thank you again and good luck to us all. And let's hope this topic will reach posts. Orlando v Toronto Under Best system available around here. Lots of web sites charging people for the privelage of knowledge which is no where near as good either.

Gintas , NBA picks. Day 2. Overall: 7 won bets, 2 lost bets. Good work! I don't know how this system will work for UEFA cup but I noticed one game that is according to the system pretty safe:. TomPearce , We tend to stay from the Cup matches as they can very often be unpredictable.

You may very well succeed, but it would have nothing to do with the system. In national cup games I stay away because the importance of the match varies for different teams and usually the squads change from league matches, resulting in more unpredictable results.

In UEFA and other European cup matches I don't see any point whatsoever of using the system, as the stats collected are from matches against teams from all around the continent, and the competition is knockout, away goals are important etc, there are too many factors besides the stats that cause it to be useless with the system.

Great job Gintas too! Thaks Yuvalfra. Like last night Glintas rocked big time. Cant wait to see what results we have today. Atilla , gintas over unders suck last night :. I must admit one thing. I know, there were some explanations, but those explanations didn't help me. Maybe you could explain that better or even give an example. An example would be great!! The righter "5" means last 5 games, and lefter "5" means 5 out of 5 matches, let's say, went over!

Am I right?! Atilla , lol u must be so lame. Atilla , I just dont understand what U ARE trying to say i will be happy to help u but u have to refer to something specific. The rest of 4 out of 5 you will see explained there. Good luck. Each of these factors are determined over or under, if they are over 2. If all the values are under 2. Finally, an excellent explanation!

And thnx to everyone else for trying to explain! TomPearce , Not sure when i will get on tomorrow so just posting an early pick which comes from the German Bundsleiga 2. This is a near certain Under as almost every stat points towards this outcome. We will see Thanks Tom.

Are you finding that works better generally? Unfortunately I haven't been able to keep up with al lthe posts lately. Dominant team: Over Home Team: Over My variation places weight on home team stat and the dominant team stat which is both Dallas. Don't place any bets on it based on its current form. I have had limited success - but all things being equal ie no major injuries etc there is a trend i want to test TomPearce , Thanks Tom. Unfortunately I haven't been able to keep up with all the posts lately.

Is that right? And please excuse me if it's a silly question but I am after a white night and full of emotions after the NBA match between Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks. Only 1 pick today. This is the same for the away team. Yuvalfra looks at the away teams away record, where as i am just looking at the last 5 games, generally 3 are at home and 2 are away, or 2 are at home and 3 are away.

Jovica S , Some pick for evening:. Cant believe it 30 mins and already 3 goals! Cant beleieve it but theres always tomorrow. Jovica S , Norwich C. But again this is my personal opinion. TomPearce , nice one Jovica S, did say about the Norwich game, the leeds one was close at the end too. Guess it must just be luck. Jovica S , For me England Championship it's one of most predictible league on yuvalfra system, and risk on these games produce money.

I'm not love Premiership, but sometimes place pick, and not have succes if play on favorite like Mancester U. But thats life :D. The positive thing is that at least the additional stats seem to provid a much more accurate prediction of the outcome over past week or so and even though lost money on Minnesota, it was good to see that it would have ended well under. Havent quite finalised the weightings which should be given to each stat, but getting closer to a regular method.

I'm thinking perhaps it's time to lose the idea of "value" bets. Without them this would be a very positive day. The only conern I have with this match is that the majority of last 3 games the kings have played at home, and the majority of last 3 games Celtics have played away hae all gone over the However, I believe that the other stats outweighs this concerns and my money is on the under. If I were forced to make a pick I would probably go for the OVer here but I won't put money on this because the method gives weight to the dominant team to drive or restrict the scoreline Post-Match Comments: In hindsight, the stats on Portland match maybe werent so bad afterall.

But everything is easy in hindsight CG , It seems to me that the further a season progresses, the lower the strike-rate Have you thought about only applying the system to the last 20 games for example and then keep this figure constant?

The further the season goes the more accurate or balanced the stats are, as they are calculated from many games to produce a single average, whereas after games a couple of very unexpected results would tilt the stats in one direction. I think the system either works or doesn't work. We can only change some small things. Perhaps it was just a stroke of luck to win many value bets at high odds and thus produce profit, and then the more profit was made the more value bets were placed, which eventually began losing and producing loss.

We'll see if in the next few days the situation gets better without value bets, eventhough yesterday was without any and still was a loss, but wasn't a major one. What we need to investigate is wether this system will work in the long run.

You can't expect to be in profit every single day, but rather every week or month. What I'm questioning is wether if the system was started right now, would it produce profit in one month's time? Jovica S , Bank: I hope no I'm espect this from start because this is not mathematics espect on result. This is error of quota on some bookies. This is maybe because team transform tactics or change coach. Only max or min out. On this system it's interesting: small number of games on one day or same time , produce more succes.

Maybe cup games, or representation games Excellent observations Jovica. I agree with the comment that the biggest losses tend to come when betting on many games at once. Perhaps this is becaus less time is spent screening out individual games for ther likelihood of success Macot , Exactly!

This is one of the important rules in betting, dont bet at too many games, which are played at the same time! I would add, that there might be some reasons to that, which are still beyond our understanding, but the point is FOCUS on one bet at the time! Due to that at least in the next month or so I will not have time to keep with the strategy, and my free time even after this period will be questionable. So, unless someone volunteers to keep the system test going in addition to lOZ's NBA picks , this means the system has come to a dead end as far as testing it in an orderly fashion.

Jovica S , Exactly! Playing one games for my opinion it's just lucky. I'm play with this system about games and 43 combo for one month. For this system it's interesting: if have one game today from unpredictible league, it's easy to get positive pick.

This situation is typical for monday. As I saw you have to deal with under over bets in this topic and I need help about that. Many thanks!!! CG , www. I have made some good money in the last 2 weeks. Jovica S , Pick for today:. Feinbier" :cry:. Can you explain please? Jovica S , England - Premier League. TomPearce , it will be interedting to see it this system work in the lower leagues today, i feel that we just need to pick out certain game maybe max of 3 or 5 a day then this system will become more accurtae rather than say 20 pick in one day.

TomPearce , always worth a try to see if h2h in the past years will work. For me this is the best league for this system. I say one time before. I play on local bookies, and for all games i'm have pick 2OR3 goal. Price for this game is 1. If you look my post before, I'm always play first pick. Second pick it's only possibility. If good I'm happy, but his not play, and not go in statistics. CG , Okay, just wondered :wink:.

Jovica S , No problem : :. I am not Elessar but let me explain what i understand from his post. He is comparing result of yuvalfra to 2. A Team vs- B Team Stats from yuvalfra calculations 2. Jovica S , This is possibility for friday. Definitive picks I'm place tomorrow. If you have sugestion place it. Jovica S , OK, I bet on next picks:. UNDER 4. Jovica S , Good single picks tonight:. Jovica S , Thanks to burakunderover :D. Jovica S , Burakunderover, one your pick maybe not good:.

Jovica S , OK sakarya - malatya '90 :. Jovica S , Nice pick today. It will be easier to understand if the system is really good. Yep, that is true because it is hard to estimate the current balance of your bankroll when we just know the number of your winning and losing picks :wink:. Good job by the way and let's hope that Yuvalfra has an easy time in his military service we all know how hard it is over there. Non tutte sono gratuite ma molte. Ogni giorno siamo alla ricerca e guardare il mondo dello sport, le organizzazioni di scommesse.

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Odds comparison, manage your bet, Online bookmaker evaluation, with an in depth ana About Bolton and Southhampton - you're wrong, because they are value bets and are meant to be "risky", both have a good possibility for OVER and if one of them is won it means profit both above odd 2.

BTW concerning Soton's last home games , , first of all they were against Birmingham and ManC which are both not high-score-away teams. And besides, I relate less to the last games, since the system relies on stats of total goals. I do take note the last few games, but don't necessarily change my bet if the last few games don't comply with the bet. About Birmingham - you're right, I saw the game was a sure under but was scared of the odd of 1.

Detroit , hello yuvalfra, are you sure about Hannover,Wolfsburg and Mgladbach? Premiership is proven again to be a fantastic league for the system. Spain disappointing. Deportivo has ended so that's a lost bet. I gotta go now so I will update the accurate results tomorrow, hopefully Benfica will finish OVER, but even if not it was still a successful day. Jovica S , Some results Germany OK but disappointing as well possibly leagues like Bundesliga should be avoided - unpredictable , France and Portugal with fantastic results.

I think that Germany II maybe good for your sistem. I checked also the German II So, the match between Aaachen RW Essen caught my eye Yet, if we only take into account their last 3 matches overall, then Aachen shows 2 unders and 1 over scores , , and RW Essen shows 3 unders So, perhaps over could prove dangerous? Well, these matches are home AND away for each team Jovica S , Statistics. I'm play this sistem from friday. Stakes is on my local bokies, because, i'm not play on Internet.

Prize is less, and I'm sure that avaliable best on Internet. Initial value is 40 Euro. Every stake on single is 2 Euro. Combo stakes is 1. Jovica S , OK, just for the sake of the conversation and the experimenting OK, let's I'm not play this games because on my local bokies, price is small. I prefer to use tradicional stats for games which is not safe in this sistem.

TomPearce , Had a good saturday here is what i did:. Also had success with French league in last few weeks so out of pick choose 6 games and with a small stake betting 12 doubles here is what i did:. Bastia v St. I will be sticking with French, and english games for a while cause they seem more successful.

Will post results after Lille-Moncao. Atalanta - Brescia :cry: 1. Udinese - Messina 1. Lecce - Juventus :cry: 1. Lazio - Bologna 1. Score: Reggina - Roma 1. Cagliari - Inter :D 1. Milano - Siena 1. Milano is so strong, and never know how goal his scored against team from bottom of table score I'm today out of home mostly time, and don't place bets. This good for all. Mostly games ended bad. Only pick on Spain Segunda save money.

Goals Per Game - 2. Spanish La Liga Goals per match 2. Italy Serie A Goals per match 2. Holland Casino Goals per match 3. Germany Bundesligue Goals per match 2. TomPearce , yuvalfra probably one of the worst days today, were that stats close today or we they looking good, anyway this thread is now becoming very popular of people viwed it now, good on you! Some of you have tested it allready and use it also i think all bugs are removed. TomPearce , Regand again very good system, which makes it very easy, but you have just added up both the home and away goals which you really need to keep seperate to make it more accurate.

Other than that they site looks very helpful. Most of the picks were pretty good. I guess I could have avoided Real, but I'm just trying to stick to the system as much as possible, which means rely more on stats and less on judgement and by the stats it was a good pick. I know it sounds funny but possibly the reason it went so bad in Serie A was the fact some of the matches had heavy rain, like Lecce-Juventus where the match could hardly take place as it was so damp.

I avoided betting over on Lecce - Juventus because I knew field was almost unplayable. Now, after the matches are over in Germany and checking the results I have to bring again this idea up I checked yesterday the matches and using the last 3 form, plus the history I chose only two of them for overs. That is Frankfurt and Duisburg. In fact only the Frankfurt match pointed to an over in ALL coefficients, whereas Duisburg had not a convincing last 3 matches form, but I decided to bet over in Duisburg due to last years' score Well, if we want to be perhaps more picky, more cautious etc, perhaps we could filter our results through the last 3 form, plus h2h history Look thtough one or two league, for this system isnt good.

This fact is well-know to me. With this system, is possibly to find which games is not good to play. I put many sugestion on England Premier and stay on this. This league is unpredictible for me, but with this system I think that may be change.

Also, Italy I is provide very good results on wednesday, but on sunday bad. For me that conclusion is for all specify. On Spain Primera, I love to play adversely. Yuvalfra this call "value" because value, generally, is very good.

But I think this is not or yes good for system. Stats will be today. Jovica S , Overview Before, I make mistake on counting games, but calculating money is good. Now it's correct. I am having a small punt on that match over.

Jovica S , Today:. SuperGreek , The price for the over in Hacking's game you suggest is ridiculously low! You can find 1,88 to 1,90 Betfair and 1,72 Centrebet. Also, very nice offer is 2,06 Pinnacle for the over 2,75 bet! Best Regards.

S I have to comment on Regand's site as well. I've been using it ever since it was beta, and now it's gone through so many improvements and is pretty much a perfect script for calculating the stats. Much thanks to him! Jovica S , The price for the over in Hacking's game you suggest is ridiculously low! I'm saying before that I play on my local bokies, not on Internet, and the price is that. I not place price on my next pick. Jovica S , yuvalfra,.

I have idea to aplly this system for WC on next round. Input data for algoritham it's total goals on qualification. It is a 2 or 3 goal game, so 3 could happen! And i go over 2,5 tonight and take the value with me :wink:. What is the difference between Over 2. Macot , The price for the over in Hacking's game you suggest is ridiculously low!

If three goals are scored, in first example 2,5 you get all winnigns and in second example 2,75 only half Oh, Cheers. Mark-y , Nice play in Germany to day for most it looks like. Jovica S , Very nice,. Jovica S , Successful day.

TomPearce , Jovica S looking at your world cup games, much like the english FA cup, not sure if i will bet on them but maybe be worth seeing if the system works on them first hand. Good luck! Israel Won its under , but hey I went under just before kick off now in halftime it I am getting different results on the over-under NBA. For eksampel LA: LA at home: ,5.

Toronto away: , Av Min ,7, max I took this game as an under at expekt odds 2, Am I doing something wrong? I am counting this way. LA at home ,5 per game - 91,5. Toronto away per game ,25 96,25 - Expekt offered under CG , sorry, mighty-duck. Mighty Duck, the program is not correct. I already pointed this out to Cyan but he hasn't replied.

The stats that mvinders wrote ARE the correct ones. It works perfect under XP! In Nba you must have a look to the form of the teams!! TomPearce , yuvalfra and Regands systems are slightly different, this is because Regands system doent cross the numbers over like yuvalfras does. What do you thnik? Toronto Away. Forget the program, try working it out on paper and you'll see that the program is not working it out correctly. TomPearce , mighty-duck do you know the proggie is not working well? I thought so much cause when i worked it out on paper and with the system it seemd to come up with totally different results.

Portland at home 99,5 - 91,5 only based on 2 games. Memphis away 96 - ,7 ,7 based on 4 games. Mark-y , Swansea - Darlington under 2. The statistic also shows for under 2. Without wanting to get too technical, I have been wondering about where you may have originally found the idea for your method.

Doing the calculations reminds me a bit of matrix theory in maths Average Away goals: 3. Average Away goals: 4. Apologies if this may have mislead anyone. Well, it seems just fine to me. Can you give me an example of when the stats are different manually and through the site? No statistical theory behind the system. Just common sense - I thought that by crossing the data of goals of the home team and the away team I would get a good picture of the amount of goals scored in the particular match.

And then I decided I should use the stats I calculated and present the minimum and maximum amount of goals, according to the stats. That way I can see how risky the bet would be - by relating to the minimum and maximum as true borders of the amount of goals possible in the game.

I didn't think at first it would succeed this much, but obviously it has. I'm also very surprised to see how well this is working in NBA bets now that people are trying to implent it to other sports. It's getting clearer every day that this system is truly a breakthrough, because a stroke of luck can last only so long I'll leave that to all of you, as I see some people are applying the system to all sorts of different leagues and competitions and delivering satisfying results.

I'm not as surprised perhaps that it has produced some good reults in the NBA. I mean, in theory, it should really work for most sports given that it is quite a strict statistical-based approach. I mean today I placed two bets on the NBA which both turned out correct From the reading hte other posts, it seems that this method really is making some difference thats for sure. Well,I'm not completely surprised, since as you said if it works for soccer due to statistics, why wouldn't it work for other sports?

But still you gotta admit it's still astonishing how adding a couple of numbers can produce such accuracy. The fact it works for NBA as well just strengthens the possibility of this system working in the long run don't forget, 70 bets are a lot, but there's still some more "proving" to be done. So I guess surprised is not the right word but rather I'm "delighted" as it helps proving this system to be effective.

This topic is getting hit so so much recently it just goes to prove how popular the simplest of systems can be. Could you please keep on writing your bets and results at this thread. I mean the percentages of won tips and won "money". To see if we could outperform in long time, please keep posting your stats! Thanks a lot. Magical , Well,. Jovica S , where did you find this statistics?

My bet is based on statistics from newspaper. That bets may be not work. All teams play a little of games. One, two or 3 games home. This is very low for statistics calculating. I'm still writing my bets - my last one was Unterhaching vs FC Koln won. I don't wanna bet on random games - like WC or U21 friendlies, I'm waiting for good oppurtunities. Sometimes the best approach to take is right under your nose. BTW - the system has been going for 15 days, hits are approaching 15, - that's 1, hits a day 8O.

This is maybe expect, after yesterday very good bets on U Original bank: 40 euro New bank: I've noticed that in a lot of cases, the calculated stats tend to be extermely close to the bookies predicted number. Maybe this is conincidence, perhaps the bookies a slightl;y more sophisticated, but more or less similar approach to determining the likely total goal score in an NBA game.

So keep on going :. I'll keep a check on it for the next week or so and post the results in here. Home team: But I am very curious to see what happens still CG , Mine brings up both Houston and Philadelphia as overs. What is your "different angle". It will be good to see as many different view points on this and hopefully try and identify which way produces postive trends.

Anyway, at least one of us will get lucky on the Philly match :lol:. I adjusted the NBA scores the hard way. Just checked all the OT games for the Home team when playing at home, allthe OT games for Away team when playing away, etc I used Sportsline. If anyone knows of a good site with very good stats on NBA it would be excellent. I know Interwettne nad Livescore are pretty good, but has limitations. CG , www. A bit questionable.

Houston home is The average is And a new concept, I'm totally unsure wether it is suitable to apply the system to this, maybe a little too adventureous so if the above win and these next ones lose don't be surprised. Jovica S , Some picks for today. CG , Just been looking through Finnish basketball odds at NordicBet mainly because of placing bets on Trotting from Onslow and came up with 1 that 'would' be a bet Home: Good Luck!

Wrong, they were fine. The system can't be applied to spread betting as I said, it was just a wacky try. You need more than 2 games in order to test the system's accuracy. Calculating the NBA stats is a major drag but its the only way to see if there if this strategy is working. You're right about the Spurs game being uncertain too actually.

Hopefully its gonna be a profitable day :D. It was completely uncertain according to the stats see lOZ's calculations , same goes to Lakers' game CG , Geez, how was Detroit a pick? TomPearce , Nice work yuvalfra again last night, i went for the double with championship game and French game 2.

Detroit , hi yuvalfra. No,I didn't notice your post, I just saw Mighty-duck posted "results" from last night, and now I see those are the picks you posted last night. TomPearce , Looking at the French league. French league is very predictable, but odds are very low, thats y i may just have these 3 french games together as a treble, which makes up odds of about 3.

When there is doubt, I take the value odd - as you can see many value bets today in French league 1. I knew it was a mistake. Jovica S , Some interesting picks for today:. OVER :cry:. Please post picks only if they are in accorance to the system even if they are all right, it doesn't reflect the system's effectiveness and tells a "lie". Chelsea-Bolton, how could you pick under at an odd of barely 1. Average homegaols : 1. Average homegaols : 4. And since I didn't pick most of the games from English Championship I'm guessing there are wrong picks there too.

Exactly TomPearce. I give less importance to the odd, rather more to the stats. TomPearce , man u vs Charlton Under :D. OT excluded. Seems that the Cleveland Match is the best bet for the day using the stats. Others too close to the line.

Been using the system on NBA with some success. I find the average of the 5 totals and if there is a difference of 10 or more with the bookies line then its a bet. Jovica S , Jovica, I can't understand some of your picks. Crystal Palace - Newcastle U.

OVER 1. OVER This two it's same as your picks. Leeds U. UNDER 1. Nottingham F. Classic for 2 or 3 goal, but number near 2 goal. I expet exactly 2 goal on this game. Plymouth Argyle - Stoke C. Watford - Rotherham U. Chelsea - Bolton W. I play this game OVER 3. This is your sistem. I'm never place my bet before good analizing game. Time it's limt for my explanation for all bet. One more. Because I'm risk more on this games.

I just found some of your picks not in accordance to the system. I think that the avg. Anyway, keep posting your picks and we'll see, maybe your approach will deliver more successful results. TomPearce , yuvalfra not such a good day today, not sure on what leagues you think are doing well so far but i thought i could run them down for you this includes todays games, not including the French and Portugiese as they have not started as of yet.

England Championship yes. Detroit , hello yuvalfa!!! Detroit , yuvalfa, what are your picks for sunday? Bogdan , Good idea, and this strategy can be improved a little using maybe another average than aritmethic, and to ponderate the results depending of key- player missing. Bookies Line: The av was Exactly 10 points under. TomPearce , Well done on your win detroit, may it continue, i had my french treble with lower odds but at 2. I've been impressed very much about this kind of strategy,so I started to make some proves on leagues of previous years Here are a little result:.

PS: yuvalfra, first of all i thionk you have done a great work! I was thinking A simple variability index that goes from 0 to 1. Have you never tryed to add something like that to goals average? It is just like a year ago leauge lives now,day by day, game by game. I make it using a database of previous years. If you need details of my first results i just posted tell me, so i will find a way to make you get my excel sheets with them. Did you check each game by the stats until it was played?

If you could explain more about the check-ups you made I would be glad to hear, and learn from your research - thanks! I didnt get to calculate all the stats. But thanks for letting me know about the Charlotte match. I will have a small punt on it. Oh, and BTW, what bookie do you use? I have to change bookies cos the odds i am getting are a bit too low.

Its important to assess how the method didn't work as much as it did.. I have the calendars and all the results, i take them in day by day, so it is just like the league is running for real. The stats refresh day by day. So, with the stats of th day i calculate 12th day under over results.

Then i put in the results of games in calendar and the stats refresh. At 13th game i have the stats th game. Anyway, to have some statistics to work on, i wait the 11th day to start testing, cause i think a lower number of played games isn't sufficient to have an idea of a trend of goals. For the moment i have tested it on 60 games of english 1st division now championship.

I will put my work on the leagues you told, portugal, french 1st and english 1st. I wil analyze years from up to current year. Obviously the odd is very important. For calculating money I can only put into my model a "paviment odd" No thanks required Yuvralfa - just glad to use your excellent formula. I am just as interested to see what the stats turn up as a lot of other people I imagine. As for the NBA results over the past two days, it is very curious how some of the final scores are close the the predicted stats.

On the other hand, a few of the predictions have been completely off. However, this should be expected as whenever you are using probability there is always going to be at least one completely wrong game now and again. Also, I didnt put a prediction down for every match in the last round of games because of the unceretainty. This is not a bad result at all. But again, I wouldnt be willing to put money behind those uncertain games just yet - as they may just be pure luck.

OT points exlcuded from calculations Thank God theres only 4 games this round 8O. Yes, I think it is worth a shot. Some bookies line is moving towards now I actually too the over on this match. Jovica, this is not an exact science. I think he took the under as a calculated risk as there are no overs to speak of Tipoune56 , As many of yours, I think Yuvalfra has made a superb work with his formula, and I just regret to not have followed him since the start, but i wonder if, for a few games, we shouln't include some qualitative information like weather forecasts or a lay-off of a coach Like today, I wouldn't bet on Villa- Totenham because here is a team which played very defensive and now seems have chosen an attacking tactics with the coach change The bookies line for the Dallas v Minnesota match is now around At the time I posted the stats, I think I got the line at I see the sense in what you are saying.

However, I think when you start to take those factors in to consideration, you get abit too complicated. I think there is something worthshile in sticking with the simplicity of the current method. Well, don't relate to the new lines, the fact the line has gone down just goes to show that many people are betting under on the original line and that is probably the right pick.

Tipoune56, the "magic" of the system is that it is very simple. Stats only are taken in consideration. So, I try to keep logic and various information as much out of it as possible. If we mix our own opinions into the bets, then there is no use for the formula, luck will be a bigger factor than it is now, and believe me it's a big factor even now - this is not a magic formula, just a reflective of the stats in one whole combination, that delivers possibly better probabiliy of winning than in normal bets - that probability can still never be certain, so you can always lose as any bet.

So anyway what I'm trying to say is that it would take too much time and effort to check every game thoroughly, plus it could harm the effectiveness of the system if we judge each pick seperately. I think the only factor that should be taken in consideration is weather, if you know of a game that has very damp conditions and your bet is OVER, then it should be a no-bet for sure.

TomPearce , again looked at the spurs game tonight, and was gonna take quite nice odds, really should have too, villa very defencive, and not scoring many either, but agree with the change of coach can effect things and also the weather, as we saw last week in the Juve game. I know, this stuff works quite good on NBA but there is still some things to be improved. TomPearce , always good to try out new ways as things i am sure can always be imporved upon.

Will be watching this one as the NBA looks very promising. I am also doing the same with football based out of As i say still in its early days but with the right pick could become promising, will keep a track until this weekend and see what happens till then. Gooc luck with your system - I hope that you are able to change our NBA fortunes at least :D Acually, i've had better luck on the soccer lately as i've notice many of our friends on this board have too.

Anyway, it will be excellent to compare how the results of these systems to see what works and what doesnt. My picks are:. From a rough analysis of hte past match results, there seems a trend that the end score more often than not gravitates towards the dominant team pehraps as that team dictates play esier , and even more so whe nthe dominant tema is playing at home. Again, this is not perfect, but worth texperimenting with. Its still jut a crude variation on the original method, and surely needs to be tests further Just wanted to clarify, how did you decide to consider 1 and 2 above?

Are these just taken from Sportsillustrated. When calculating the Home, Away, av, max min, do you remove the points scored by the teams in OT matches? Thanks and congrats again :D. I have made some money using it and now it's time to thank yuvalfra for the system.

So any predictions for the NBA matches tonight? Thank you again and good luck to us all. And let's hope this topic will reach posts. Orlando v Toronto Under Best system available around here. Lots of web sites charging people for the privelage of knowledge which is no where near as good either. Gintas , NBA picks. Day 2. Overall: 7 won bets, 2 lost bets.

Good work! I don't know how this system will work for UEFA cup but I noticed one game that is according to the system pretty safe:. You may very well succeed, but it would have nothing to do with the system. In national cup games I stay away because the importance of the match varies for different teams and usually the squads change from league matches, resulting in more unpredictable results. In UEFA and other European cup matches I don't see any point whatsoever of using the system, as the stats collected are from matches against teams from all around the continent, and the competition is knockout, away goals are important etc, there are too many factors besides the stats that cause it to be useless with the system.

Great job Gintas too! Thaks Yuvalfra. I hae to say, the past week was pretty demoralising with the NBA results. Like last night Glintas rocked big time. Cant wait to see what results we have today. Atilla , gintas over unders suck last night :. I must admit one thing. I know, there were some explanations, but those explanations didn't help me.

Maybe you could explain that better or even give an example. An example would be great!! The righter "5" means last 5 games, and lefter "5" means 5 out of 5 matches, let's say, went over! Am I right?! Atilla , lol u must be so lame. Atilla , I just dont understand what U ARE trying to say i will be happy to help u but u have to refer to something specific. The rest of 4 out of 5 you will see explained there. Good luck. Each of these factors are determined over or under, if they are over 2.

If all the values are under 2. Finally, an excellent explanation! And thnx to everyone else for trying to explain! TomPearce , Not sure when i will get on tomorrow so just posting an early pick which comes from the German Bundsleiga 2. This is a near certain Under as almost every stat points towards this outcome. We will see Thanks Tom. Are you finding that works better generally? Unfortunately I haven't been able to keep up with al lthe posts lately. Dominant team: Over Home Team: Over My variation places weight on home team stat and the dominant team stat which is both Dallas.

I'm gong to stick with this system for a bit. Don't place any bets on it based on its current form. I have had limited success - but all things being equal ie no major injuries etc there is a trend i want to test TomPearce , Thanks Tom. Unfortunately I haven't been able to keep up with all the posts lately. And please excuse me if it's a silly question but I am after a white night and full of emotions after the NBA match between Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.

Only 1 pick today. Is that right? This is the same for the away team. Yuvalfra looks at the away teams away record, where as i am just looking at the last 5 games, generally 3 are at home and 2 are away, or 2 are at home and 3 are away. Jovica S , Some pick for evening:. Cant believe it 30 mins and already 3 goals! TomPearce , cant beleiev them 3 early goals finished the game, in the end it stayed 3- 0. Cant beleieve it but theres always tomorrow. Jovica S , Norwich C.

But again this is my personal opinion. TomPearce , nice one Jovica S, did say about the Norwich game, the leeds one was close at the end too. Guess it must just be luck. Jovica S , For me England Championship it's one of most predictible league on yuvalfra system, and risk on these games produce money. I'm not love Premiership, but sometimes place pick, and not have succes if play on favorite like Mancester U.

But thats life :D. The positive thing is that at least the additional stats seem to provid a much more accurate prediction of the outcome over past week or so and even though lost money on Minnesota, it was good to see that it would have ended well under. Havent quite finalised the weightings which should be given to each stat, but getting closer to a regular method. I'm thinking perhaps it's time to lose the idea of "value" bets.

Without them this would be a very positive day. Jovica S , Some interesting pick for today:. The only conern I have with this match is that the majority of last 3 games the kings have played at home, and the majority of last 3 games Celtics have played away hae all gone over the However, I believe that the other stats outweighs this concerns and my money is on the under. If I were forced to make a pick I would probably go for the OVer here but I won't put money on this because the method gives weight to the dominant team to drive or restrict the scoreline Some tough ones, but hopefully using the extended stats method we will have some beer money compliments of the Kings n Celtics today :D.

Post-Match Comments: In hindsight, the stats on Portland match maybe werent so bad afterall. But everything is easy in hindsight CG , It seems to me that the further a season progresses, the lower the strike- rate Have you thought about only applying the system to the last 20 games for example and then keep this figure constant? The further the season goes the more accurate or balanced the stats are, as they are calculated from many games to produce a single average, whereas after games a couple of very unexpected results would tilt the stats in one direction.

I think the system either works or doesn't work. We can only change some small things. Perhaps it was just a stroke of luck to win many value bets at high odds and thus produce profit, and then the more profit was made the more value bets were placed, which eventually began losing and producing loss. We'll see if in the next few days the situation gets better without value bets, eventhough yesterday was without any and still was a loss, but wasn't a major one.

What we need to investigate is wether this system will work in the long run. You can't expect to be in profit every single day, but rather every week or month. What I'm questioning is wether if the system was started right now, would it produce profit in one month's time? Jovica S , Bank: I hope no I'm espect this from start because this is not mathematics espect on result. This is error of quota on some bookies. This is maybe because team transform tactics or change coach.

Only max or min out. On this system it's interesting: small number of games on one day or same time , produce more succes. Maybe cup games, or representation games Excellent observations Jovica. Perhaps this is becaus less time is spent screening out individual games for ther likelihood of success Macot , Exactly! This is one of the important rules in betting, dont bet at too many games, which are played at the same time!

I would add, that there might be some reasons to that, which are still beyond our understanding, but the point is FOCUS on one bet at the time! In 2 days I'm unfortunately recruiting to the army. Due to that at least in the next month or so I will not have time to keep with the strategy, and my free time even after this period will be questionable. So, unless someone volunteers to keep the system test going in addition to lOZ's NBA picks , this means the system has come to a dead end as far as testing it in an orderly fashion.

Jovica S , Exactly! Macot, this is exactly what I'm not have to say maybe my bad english. Playing one games for my opinion it's just lucky. I'm play with this system about games and 43 combo for one month. For this system it's interesting: if have one game today from unpredictible league, it's easy to get positive pick.

This situation is typical for monday. Leyton Orient - Southend U. As I saw you have to deal with under over bets in this topic and I need help about that. Many thanks!!! I have made some good money in the last 2 weeks. Jovica S , Pick for today:. Feinbier" :cry:. Jovica S , Germany - Bundesliga I. TomPearce , it will be interedting to see it this system work in the lower leagues today, i feel that we just need to pick out certain game maybe max of 3 or 5 a day then this system will become more accurtae rather than say 20 pick in one day.

TomPearce , always worth a try to see if h2h in the past years will work. For me this is the best league for this system. I say one time before. I play on local bookies, and for all games i'm have pick 2OR3 goal. Price for this game is 1. If you look my post before, I'm always play first pick. Second pick it's only possibility. If good I'm happy, but his not play, and not go in statistics. CG , Okay, just wondered :wink:. Jovica S , No problem : :.

I am not Elessar but let me explain what i understand from his post. He is comparing result of yuvalfra to 2. A Team vs- B Team Stats from yuvalfra calculations 2. Jovica S , This is possibility for friday. Definitive picks I'm place tomorrow. If you have sugestion place it. Jovica S , OK, I bet on next picks:. UNDER 4. Jovica S , Good single picks tonight:.

Jovica S , Thanks to burakunderover :D. Jovica S , Burakunderover, one your pick maybe not good:. Jovica S , Nice pick today. It will be easier to understand if the system is really good. Yep, that is true because it is hard to estimate the current balance of your bankroll when we just know the number of your winning and losing picks :wink:.

Good job by the way and let's hope that Yuvalfra has an easy time in his military service we all know how hard it is over there. So any picks for tonight? Jovica S , Thanks to mircearos on support. I'm very busy, and not have enough time to place and explain all picks.

One reason it's that i'm not good speek, and write english. In the last time, I'm calculate only week for week. Number of picks now for 7 week is enormnly high, and request much more time. If you want to see my first and second week go on page i think.

You probably see, my picks not have odds, because i'm play on local bokies, and on Internet you will find high odds. Tonight, i'm probably not have enough time to alalize games, because i'm write this post half hour. If I have, i'm post picks. Keep it up. I am glad to see that Yuvalfra's work is continuing here. Pick over using the usual method. Jovica S , Tonight we not have safe picks. German Hero , Put i something wrong? Thats my steps: I put ins the home stats from Charlton and the way stast from Fulham.

Keep goin! I'm waiting for your next picks and some new deas about your strategy. I use it just for the first part, the second part where you compare which is smaller and which is bigger i use a normal calculator. That is probably why Jovica S has some different results than you do. Or it may be that you are using other statistics.

I use www. I made some money with it. Although I was a bit afraid at the end. My bets were over , and small amounts on Jazz and Handicap on Jazz.

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